One key to Senator Obama's chances of defeating Senator
Clinton in the crucial Pennsylvania primary next month will be his
courtship of Catholic voters, a sizable bloc that has loyally supported
the former first lady throughout the primary season.

Catholics could make up more than one-third of the vote in the
Keystone State on April 22, and Mrs. Clinton's victories in Ohio,
Texas, and Rhode Island on Tuesday made clear that despite a stepped-up
effort in recent weeks, Mr. Obama has failed to narrow her edge with
that demographic.

Mr. Obama's campaign has fought aggressively against the perception
that he has a "Catholic problem," but it does not deny the numbers: In
state after state that Mrs. Clinton has won, exit polls show that she
has captured as much as 65% of the Catholic vote — a percentage that
far outstrips her margin of victory. And in several states that Mr.
Obama has claimed, including his home state of Illinois, which he won
by 22 points, the Catholic vote has gone to Mrs. Clinton.

The Catholic numbers have prompted an intensifying debate about the
reason the gap persists, and whether it is due to a specific advantage
for Mrs. Clinton or doubts about Mr. Obama, or whether it is merely
attributable to overlapping voting constituencies that favor the New
York senator.

"The consistent polling has been that the bedrock of her strength is
Catholic Democrats," a Clinton supporter who heads the National Ethnic
Democratic Leadership Council, Brian O'Dwyer, said.

Mrs. Clinton's advantage escapes obvious explanation. She is not
Catholic, and while her supporters often point to her involvement in
the Northern Ireland peace process as fostering a close connection with
Catholics, Mr. Obama has the fervent backing of one of America's most
prominent elected Catholics, Senator Kennedy of Massachusetts, whose
brother was the first Catholic president.

Advisers to Mr. Obama have contended that Mrs. Clinton's edge among
Catholics is fueled largely by her well-known support among Hispanic
voters, who comprise a large proportion of the Catholic population in
large states like California and Texas. The Obama campaign pushed back
hard against a Politico article earlier this month that reported on his
soft support among Catholics, fearful that the story would become a
dominant campaign narrative.

But the March 4 results seem to have put to rest the notion that
Mrs. Clinton's Hispanic base is wholly responsible for her advantage
among Catholics. In Ohio, which has a tiny Hispanic population, she won
63% of the vote among Catholics, who comprised one-fifth of all voters
in the primary, according to an NBC News exit poll. And in Rhode
Island, where white Catholics made up 46% of the primary electorate,
Mrs. Clinton took 69% of the demographic. Mr. Obama did win the
Catholic vote in Vermont, but his advantage was much thinner than his
margin of victory overall. The percentages bode well for Mrs. Clinton in Pennsylvania, whose large Catholic population is predominantly white.

Looking ahead to next month, Mr. Obama's campaign is actively
reaching out to Catholic voters. The senator in February sent a letter
to thousands of nuns across the country, and the campaign was pleased
with several "community faith forums" it held in Ohio, including two
directed at Catholic voters specifically that featured a former Indiana
congressman, Timothy Roemer, as well as Victoria Kennedy, the wife of
Senator Kennedy. The campaign plans several more of those events in
Pennsylvania, Mr. Obama's director of religious affairs, Joshua DuBois,
said in an interview.

In addition to Mrs. Clinton's support with Hispanic voters, the
Obama campaign attributes her success among Catholics to her longer
tenure on the national stage.

Mr. DuBois downplayed worries that Mr. Obama was not connecting with
Catholic voters, and although the campaign is 14 months old, he said
the candidate's introduction to Catholics was only beginning. The
campaign, he said, would be "aggressively and robustly reaching out to
Catholics" in the weeks ahead.

"There's no concern there, because this introduction is just getting
started," Mr. DuBois said, "and as more and more Catholics get to know
who Senator Obama is and what he stands for, we are 100% confident that
he will be the candidate for Catholic voters, not just in the primary
but on into the general election."

Mr. DuBois also pointed to states that Mr. Obama has won with sizable Catholic
populations, such as Louisiana and Missouri.

Indeed, there is little evidence to suggest that Catholics have
supported Mrs. Clinton, who is Methodist, over a specific issue or
because they distrust or dislike Mr. Obama. "We've not picked up
anybody who says, 'I'm a Catholic, and I'm voting for Hillary,'" a
political scientist who directs the Franklin and Marshall Poll in
Pennsylvania, G. Terry Madonna, said.

There is also no evidence that false speculation about Mr. Obama
being a Muslim -- he is a Christian -- have had an outsize impact on
Catholics, nor is there data indicating that race has been a factor in
the Catholic vote.

Mr. Madonna said Mrs. Clinton's advantage could likely be attributed
to a number of factors, in particular the fact that many of the
working-class white voters who form the base of her support are
Catholic. These Democrats, who tend to vote based on more "bread and
butter table talk" issues like health care and the economy, have
responded more to Mrs. Clinton's message than Mr. Obama's "new kind of
politics" brand.

As the Democratic race turns increasingly to the question of
electability, the Catholic gap could loom large. Catholics have
traditionally been a swing vote, Mr. Madonna said, and many fall into
the category of Reagan Democrats, which could be crucial to the chances
for victory for either Mr. Obama or Mrs. Clinton over the presumptive
Republican nominee, Senator McCain.

"This spells disaster for the Democrats if Obama were the nominee,"
Mr. O'Dwyer said, suggesting the senator's thin ties to the Catholic
community would put him at a considerable disadvantage versus Mr.
McCain, who he said had a strong appeal among Catholics.

A Democratic consultant who supports Mr. Obama, Michael Tobman,
disputed the idea that Catholics would shift en masse to Mr. McCain if
Mr. Obama were nominated, but he did acknowledge that the Arizona
senator, who identifies himself as a Baptist, could have an advantage,
particularly with Irish Catholics.

"For nothing more than his last name, McCain starts with a leg up in the Catholic
community," Mr. Tobman said.

Catholic Voters Viewed as Key in Pennsylvania
By Howard Berman
March 10, 2008
Copyright 2008, New York Sun