Wall Street Journal
Conservative-Catholic Voters May Be in Play
By DOUGLAS BELKIN
May 29, 2008; Page A6

For the first time since the presidential election of 1988, the
observant white Catholic vote might be up for grabs this November.

Conservative Catholics now appear to be more concerned about the
economy and the war in Iraq, and less motivated by abortion, the issue
that has long kept the voting bloc aligned with Republicans.

The shift may be bad news for Sen. John McCain, but it also poses a
challenge for Sen. Barack Obama in some critical swing states where a
majority of Catholic voters supported Sen. Hillary Clinton in the
Democratic primaries.

Since the 1970s, the country's roughly 64 million Catholics have
generally voted in line with the nation. Still, some distinct segments
of Catholics can swing an election.

Among those blocs are the 12 million or so non-Hispanic Catholics
who attend weekly Mass. While less-observant Catholics have vacillated
between parties and supported John Kerry in 2004, a majority of these
traditional Catholics has voted Republican in every presidential
election since 1992, says John Green, a senior fellow with the Pew Forum
on Religion and Public Life. In 2004, 62% backed President Bush.

This time around, they seem less likely to back a Republican.

Tricia Louis, a 43-year-old Republican and mother of four, attends
Mass every Sunday near her home in Withamsville, Ohio, about 20 minutes
from Cincinnati. She twice voted for Mr. Bush because of his stand
against abortion. In March, she cast her ballot for Sen. Clinton.

"I didn't think the war would go on as long as it has," Mrs. Louis
said. "I still think abortion is murder, but I've known two soldiers
who've been killed in Iraq. That's murder, too."

Now, she is weighing whether she would vote for Sen. Obama in
November and has doubts that he can handle the war -- as well as the
economy. Ohio has lost more than 200,000 manufacturing jobs since 2000.
Last year, 150,000 homes went into foreclosure, and now 1-in-10
residents is collecting food stamps.

A Pew poll taken in January 2007 found only 38% of traditional
Catholics favored a generic Republican presidential candidate. An August
2007 poll showed them three times as concerned with the economy as
social issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage.

"Conservative Catholics are very much in play," Mr. Green says.

While Sen. Obama supports abortion rights, he has backed several
bills to reduce unintended pregnancies and therefore the need for
abortion. His campaign is hoping his record on other issues will carry
the day. "He has spent an entire career bringing people together and
putting his faith into action, and that's a distinctly Catholic
concept," says Joshua DuBois, national director of religious affairs for
the Obama campaign.

Sen. McCain is still establishing his conservative credentials among
the religious right. In a speech at Wake Forest University in North
Carolina this month, he assured conservatives he would appoint judges he
characterized as strictly faithful to the Constitution, a signal they
would be pro-life.

For now, wedge issues, like gay marriage and abortion, are taking a
back seat, while issues like the war in Iraq, health care for the poor
and concerns about the environment are keeping the conservative Catholic
vote in play.

Even a small shift among Catholics in battleground states like Ohio,
Michigan and Pennsylvania could swing the election.

One of those places is Clermont County, Ohio, where Mrs. Louis
lives. Catholics helped push Mr. Bush to a 37,000-vote victory over John
Kerry there in 2004. Statewide, where one of every four voters is
Catholic, Mr. Bush edged Mr. Kerry by 120,000 votes out of nearly six
million cast.

In March, the county's turnout was 45%, nearly twice the norm for
presidential primaries. Some 4,345 registered Republicans crossed party
lines to vote for a Democrat, said Judy Miller, the director of the
Clermont County Board of Elections. Sen. Clinton beat Sen. Obama by
6,000 votes of 27,000 Democratic votes cast.

In the center of the state, Marion County Republican Committee
Chairman John Matthews said he saw similar numbers and estimated
one-third of the Republican party-changers were Catholics.

"We don't know if Obama is going to pick up those voters or not,"
Mr. Matthews said.